The author admits he does not know when the AI bubble will burst, but notes that even senior financiers are voicing concern. At the 2026 Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Emmanuel Roman, CEO of PIMCO, warned that the AI buildout may trigger a downturn and cause markets to break.
Roman estimates that the AI expansion will require about $2 trillion in financing over the next five years, a figure that dwarfs the entire US bond market, which stands at roughly $12 trillion. The surge in spending has already flooded debt markets, making cash raising more difficult despite continued demand for bonds.
Corporate bond offerings illustrate the scale: Meta secured $58 billion in orders for a $15‑20 billion issue, Oracle announced an additional $20 billion need, Alphabet is selling €6 billion (about $6.7 billion), and Microsoft returned to the bond market for the first time in a decade with a $25 billion sale. Apollo Global Management, which is negotiating a $40 billion chip deal with SpaceX, also cautions that while AI computing power will grow, pricing and economic models remain uncertain. Reports from China suggest its AI bubble may have already burst, and Wall Street banks are financing $63 billion in debt for Anthropic, a non‑hyperscaler.
These mixed signals highlight the uncertainty surrounding AI investments. While the sheer volume of bond demand hints that the market has not yet peaked, the warnings from PIMCO and Apollo underscore the need for prudence as the industry navigates rapid technological change and massive capital requirements.
Nguồn: The Verge — Biên dịch & tổng hợp: danhbaai.com